The OECD has lowered by 2.7% to 2.3% growth
The OECD has lowered by 2.7% to 2.3% growth prospects for countries in its area in 2008. The IMF is preparing to do the same when he has already reduced its forecast for global growth to 4.8%..
The economy will continue in effect to pay the piper of the year 2007, will probably be full of surprises, analysts said Goldman Sachs in a note.
In 2007, the world has discovered the existence of subprime, the real estate loans made to households and poor Americans that triggered a broad financial crisis has been.
The financial markets are extremely worried and tense and around the banks have tightened their lending criteria, making the staggering growth.
United States we’re in the danger zone, Behravesh says, with an underlying risk of recession.
It would take two shocks for it. We have one with the real estate crisis, and if oil prices return to around 95-100 dollars a barrel, given the vulnerability of the economy, it might suffice to cause a recession, says he.
This vulnerability could increase if, as many analysts provide, the housing crisis worsens with an increase in seizures.
Total, do not expect much more than 2% growth in the United States. And the world will suffer because, as recalled by Mr. Behravesh, there is generally a lag of six months with other countries.
In the Eurozone strong winds will continue to blow, warns Carlos Caceres of Morgan Stanley, listing the price of oil, the strength of the euro and the repercussions of credit crunch.
The boss of EADS (Airbus’ parent company), Louis Gallois, who keeps repeating that he loses more than one billion euros when the dollar was down 10 cents, and it has relocated part of its production in the dollar zone.
But the euro can quite reach $1.55 by the middle of the year, for many analysts.
Some also fear a severe downturn in various European property markets-Spain, Great Britain and Ireland in mind.
However, the euro area economy has shown its strength, what makes a hard landing unlikely, says Caceres.
And some optimists even talk of an early improvement of mid-year.
The United States will start, the euro will decline against the dollar and oil prices will decline, leading to a 2% growth in the euro area in the second half, say the analysts at Societe Generale.
The financial crisis has just passed the concerns about China in second. But his unbridled growth could have a backlash in the late years.
By the Olympics, do not expect a slowdown, but after the government could take more drastic measures to slow the economy. There is a risk of hard landing late 2008-2009 says Behravesh.
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